on the method of zadig-第2部分

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centuries　past；　nay；　might　it　not　extend　ten　thousand　years　and

justify　the　impious　in　meddling　with　the　traditions　of　Oannes

and　the　fish；　and　all　the　sacred　foundations　of

Babylonian　cosmogony？



But　this　was　not　the　worst。　There　was　another　consideration

which　obviously　dictated　to　the　more　thoughtful　of　the　magi　the

propriety　of　burning　Zadig　out　of　hand。　His　defence　was　worse

than　his　offence。　It　showed　that　his　mode　of　divination　was

fraught　with　danger　to　magianism　in　general。　Swollen　with　the

pride　of　human　reason；　he　had　ignored　the　established　canons　of

magian　lore；　and；　trusting　to　what　after　all　was　mere　carnal

common　sense；　he　professed　to　lead　men　to　a　deeper　insight　into

nature　than　magian　wisdom；　with　all　its　lofty　antagonism　to

everything　common；　had　ever　reached。　What；　in　fact；　lay　at　the

foundation　of　all　Zadig's　argument　but　the　coarse　commonplace

assumption；　upon　which　every　act　of　our　daily　lives　is　based；

that　we　may　conclude　from　an　effect　to　the　pre…existence　of　a

cause　competent　to　produce　that　effect？



The　tracks　were　exactly　like　those　which　dogs　and　horses　leave；

therefore　they　were　the　effects　of　such　animals　as　causes。

The　marks　at　the　sides　of　the　fore…prints　of　the　dog　track　were

exactly　such　as　would　be　produced　by　long　trailing　ears；

therefore　the　dog's　long　ears　were　the　causes　of　these　marks

and　so　on。　Nothing　can　be　more　hopelessly　vulgar；　more　unlike

the　majestic　development　of　a　system　of　grandly　unintelligible

conclusions　from　sublimely　inconceivable　premisses　such　as

delights　the　magian　heart。　In　fact；　Zadig's　method　was　nothing

but　the　method　of　all　mankind。　Retrospective　prophecies；　far

more　astonishing　for　their　minute　accuracy　than　those　of　Zadig；

are　familiar　to　those　who　have　watched　the　daily　life　of

nomadic　people。



From　freshly　broken　twigs；　crushed　leaves；　disturbed　pebbles；

and　imprints　hardly　discernible　by　the　untrained　eye；　such

graduates　in　the　University　of　Nature　will　divine；　not　only　the

fact　that　a　party　has　passed　that　way；　but　its　strength；　its

composition；　the　course　it　took；　and　the　number　of　hours　or　days

which　have　elapsed　since　it　passed。　But　they　are　able　to　do　this

because；　like　Zadig；　they　perceive　endless　minute　differences

where　untrained　eyes　discern　nothing；　and　because　the

unconscious　logic　of　common　sense　compels　them　to　account　for

these　effects　by　the　causes　which　they　know　to　be　competent　to

produce　them。



And　such　mere　methodised　savagery　was　to　discover　the　hidden

things　of　nature　better　than　a　priori　deductions　from　the

nature　of　Ormuzdperhaps　to　give　a　history　of　the　past；　in

which　Oannes　would　be　altogether　ignored！　Decidedly　it　were

better　to　burn　this　man　at　once。



If　instinct；　or　an　unwonted　use　of　reason；　led　Moabdar's　magi　to

this　conclusion　two　or　three　thousand　years　ago；　all　that　can　be

said　is　that　subsequent　history　has　fully　justified　them。

For　the　rigorous　application　of　Zadig's　logic　to　the　results　of

accurate　and　long…continued　observation　has　founded　all　those

sciences　which　have　been　termed　historical　or　palaetiological；

because　they　are　retrospectively　prophetic　and　strive　towards

the　reconstruction　in　human　imagination　of　events　which　have

vanished　and　ceased　to　be。



History；　in　the　ordinary　acceptation　of　the　word；　is　based　upon

the　interpretation　of　documentary　evidence；　and　documents　would

have　no　evidential　value　unless　historians　were　justified　in

their　assumption　that　they　have　come　into　existence　by　the

operation　of　causes　similar　to　those　of　which　documents　are；　in

our　present　experience；　the　effects。　If　a　written　history　can　be

produced　otherwise　than　by　human　agency；　or　if　the　man　who　wrote

a　given　document　was　actuated　by　other　than　ordinary　human

motives；　such　documents　are　of　no　more　evidential　value　than　so

many　arabesques。



Archaeology；　which　takes　up　the　thread　of　history　beyond　the

point　at　which　documentary　evidence　fails　us；　could　have　no

existence；　except　for　our　well　grounded　confidence　that

monuments　and　works　of　art　or　artifice；　have　never　been　produced

by　causes　different　in　kind　from　those　to　which　they　now　owe

their　origin。　And　geology；　which　traces　back　the　course　of

history　beyond　the　limits　of　archaeology；　could　tell　us　nothing

except　for　the　assumption　that；　millions　of　years　ago；　water；

heat；　gravitation；　friction；　animal　and　vegetable　life；　caused

effects　of　the　same　kind　as　they　now　cause。　Nay；　even　physical

astronomy；　in　so　far　as　it　takes　us　back　to　the　uttermost　point

of　time　which　palaetiological　science　can　reach；　is　founded　upon

the　same　assumption。　If　the　law　of　gravitation　ever　failed　to　be

true；　even　to　a　small　extent；　for　that　period；　the　calculations

of　the　astronomer　have　no　application。



The　power　of　prediction；　of　prospective　prophecy；　is　that　which

is　commonly　regarded　as　the　great　prerogative　of　physical

science。　And　truly　it　is　a　wonderful　fact　that　one　can　go　into　a

shop　and　buy　for　a　small　price　a　book；　the　〃Nautical　Almanac；〃

which　will　foretell　the　exact　position　to　be　occupied　by　one　of

Jupiter's　moons　six　months　hence；　nay；　more；　that；　if　it　were

worth　while；　the　Astronomer…Royal　could　furnish　us　with　as

infallible　a　prediction　applicable　to　1980　or　2980。



But　astronomy　is　not　less　remarkable　for　its　power　of

retrospective　prophecy。



Thales；　oldest　of　Greek　philosophers；　the　dates　of　whose

birth　and　death　are　uncertain；　but　who　flourished　about　600

B。C。；　is　said　to　have　foretold　an　eclipse　of　the　sun　which　took

place　in　his　time　during　a　battle　between　the　Medes　and　the

Lydians。　Sir　George　Airy　has　written　a　very　learned　and

interesting　memoir　in　which　he　proves　that　such　an　eclipse

was　visible　in　Lydia　on　the　afternoon　of　the　28th　of　May　in　the

year　585　B。C。



No　one　doubts　that；　on　the　day　and　at　the　hour　mentioned　by　the

Astronomer…Royal；　the　people　of　Lydia　saw　the　face　of　the　sun

totally　obscured。　But；　though　we　implicitly　believe　this

retrospective　prophecy；　it　is　incapable　of　verification。　In　the

total　absence　of　historical　records；　it　is　impossible　even　to

conceive　any　means　of　ascertaining　directly　whether　the　eclipse

of　Thales　happened　or　not。　All　that　can　be　said　is；　that　the

prospective　prophecies　of　the　astronomer　are　always　verified；

and　that；　inasmuch　as　his　retrospective　prophecies　are　the

result　of　following　backwards；　the　very　same　method　as　that

which　invariably　leads　to　verified　results；　when　it　is　worked

forwards；　there　is　as　much　reason　for　placing　full　confidence　in

the　one　as　in　the　other。　Retrospective　prophecy　is　therefore　a

legitimate　function　of　astronomical　science；　and　if　it　is

legitimate　for　one　science　it　is　legitimate　for　all；

the　fundamental　axiom　on　which　it　rests；　the　constancy　of　the

order　of　nature；　being　the　common　foundation　of　all　scientific

thought。　Indeed；　if　there　can　be　grades　in　legitimacy；　certain

branches　of　science　have　the　advantage　over　astronomy；　in　so　far

as　their　retrospective　prophecies　are　not　only　susceptible　of

verification；　but　are　sometimes　strikingly　verified。



Such　a　science　exists　in　that　application　of　the　principles　of

biology　to　the　interpretation　of　the　animal　and　vegetable

remains　imbedded　in　the　rocks　which　compose　the　surface　of　the

globe；　which　is　called　Palaeontology。



At　no　very　distant　time；　the　question　whether　these　so…called

〃fossils；〃　were　really　the　remains　of　animals　and　plants　was

hotly　disputed。　Very　learned　persons　maintained　that　they　were

nothing　of　the　kind；　but　a　sort　of　concretion；　or

crystallisation；　which　had　taken　place　within　the　stone　in　which

they　are　found；　and　which　simulated　the　forms　of　animal　and

vegetable　life；　just　as　frost　on　a　window…pane　imitates

vegetation。　At　the　present　day；　it　would　probably　be　impossible

to　find　any　sane　advocate　of　this　opinion；　and　the　fact　is

rather　surprising；　that　among　the　people　from　whom　the　circle…

squarers；　perpetual…motioners；　flat…earthed　men　and　the　like；

are　recruited；　to　say　nothing　of　table…turners　and　spirit…

rappers；　somebody　has　not　perceived　the　easy　avenue　to

nonsensical　notoriety　open　to　any　one　who　will　take　up　the

good　old　doctrine；　that　fossils　are　all　lusus　naturae。



The　position　would　be　impregnable；　inasmuch　as　it　is　quite

impossible　to　prove　the　contrary。　If　a　man　choose　to　maintain

that　a　fossil　oyster　shell；　in　spite　of　its　correspondence；　down

to　every　minutest　particular；　with　that　of　an　oyster　fresh　taken

out　of　the　sea；　was　never　tenanted　by　a　living　oyster；　but　is　a

mineral　concretion；　there　is　no　demonstrating　his　error。

All　that　can　be　done　is　to　show　him　that；　by　a　parity　of

reasoning；　he　is　bound　to　admit　that　a　heap　of　oyster　shells

outside　a　fishmonger's　door　may　also　be　〃sports　of　nature；〃　and

that　a　mutton　bone　in　a　dust…bin　may　have　had　the　like　origin。

And　when　you　cannot　prove　that　people　are　wrong；　but　only　that

they　are　absurd；　the　best　course　is　to　let　them　alone。



The　whole　fabric　of　palaeontology；　in　fact；　falls　to　the　ground

unless　we　admit　the　validity　of　Zadig's　great　principle；　that

like　effects　imply　like　causes；　and　that　the　process　of

reasoning　from　a　shell；　or　a　tooth；　or　a　bone；　to　the　nature　of

the　animal　to　which　it　belonged；　rests　absolutely　on　the

assumption　that　the　likeness　of　this　shell；　or　tooth；　or　bone；

to　that　of　some　animal　with　which　we　are　already　acquainted；　is

such　that　we　are　justified　in　inferring　a　corresponding　degree

of　likeness　in　the　rest　of　the　two　organisms。　It　is　on　this　very

simple　principle；　and　not　upon　imaginary　laws　of

physiological　correlation；　about　which；　in　most　cases；　we　know

nothing　whatever；　that　the　so…called　restorations　of　the

palaeontologist　are　based。



Abundant　illustrations　of　this　truth　will　occur　to　every　one　who

is　familiar　with　palaeontology；　none　is　more　suitable　than　the

case　of　the　so…called　Belemn