the bickerstaff-partridge papers-第1部分

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The　Bickerstaff…Partridge　Papers



by　Jonathan　Swift





Jonathan　Swift；　et　al。

The　Bickerstaff…Partridge　Papers；　etc。

Annus　Mirabilis



PREDICTIONS　FOR　THE　YEAR　1708









Wherein　the　month；　and　day　of　the　month　are　set　down；　the　persons

named；　and　the　great　actions　and　events　of　next　year　particularly

related；　as　will　come　to　pass。



Written　to　prevent　the　people　of　England　from　being　farther

imposed　on　by　vulgar　almanack…makers。



By　Isaac　Bickerstaff；　Esq。



I　have　long　consider'd　the　gross　abuse　of　astrology　in　this

kingdom；　and　upon　debating　the　matter　with　myself；　I　could　not

possibly　lay　the　fault　upon　the　art；　but　upon　those　gross

impostors；　who　set　up　to　be　the　artists。　I　know　several　learned

men　have　contended　that　the　whole　is　a　cheat；　that　it　is　absurd

and　ridiculous　to　imagine；　the　stars　can　have　any　influence　at

all　upon　human　actions；　thoughts；　or　inclinations：　And　whoever

has　not　bent　his　studies　that　way；　may　be　excused　for　thinking

so；　when　he　sees　in　how　wretched　a　manner　that　noble　art　is

treated　by　a　few　mean　illiterate　traders　between　us　and　the

stars；　who　import　a　yearly　stock　of　nonsense；　lyes；　folly；　and

impertinence；　which　they　offer　to　the　world　as　genuine　from　the

planets；　tho'　they　descend　from　no　greater　a　height　than　their

own　brains。



I　intend　in　a　short　time　to　publish　a　large　and　rational　defence

of　this　art；　and　therefore　shall　say　no　more　in　its　justification

at　present；　than　that　it　hath　been　in　all　ages　defended　by　many

learned　men；　and　among　the　rest　by　Socrates　himself；　whom　I　look

upon　as　undoubtedly　the　wisest　of　uninspir'd　mortals：　To　which　if

we　add；　that　those　who　have　condemned　this　art；　though　otherwise

learned；　having　been　such　as　either　did　not　apply　their　studies

this　way；　or　at　least　did　not　succeed　in　their　applications；

their　testimony　will　not　be　of　much　weight　to　its　disadvantage；

since　they　are　liable　to　the　common　objection　of　condemning　what

they　did　not　understand。



Nor　am　I　at　all　offended；　or　think　it　an　injury　to　the　art；　when

I　see　the　common　dealers　in　it；　the　students　in　astrology；　the

philomaths；　and　the　rest　of　that　tribe；　treated　by　wise　men　with

the　utmost　scorn　and　contempt；　but　rather　wonder；　when　I　observe

gentlemen　in　the　country；　rich　enough　to　serve　the　nation　in

parliament；　poring　in　Partridge's　almanack；　to　find　out　the

events　of　the　year　at　home　and　abroad；　not　daring　to　propose　a

hunting…match；　till　Gadbury　or　he　have　fixed　the　weather。



I　will　allow　either　of　the　two　I　have　mentioned；　or　any　other　of

the　fraternity；　to　be　not　only　astrologers；　but　conjurers　too；　if

I　do　not　produce　a　hundred　instances　in　all　their　almanacks；　to

convince　any　reasonable　man；　that　they　do　not　so　much　as

understand　common　grammar　and　syntax；　that　they　are　not　able　to

spell　any　word　out　of　the　usual　road；　nor　even　in　their　prefaces

write　common　sense　or　intelligible　English。　Then　for　their

observations　and　predictions；　they　are　such　as　will　equally　suit

any　age　or　country　in　the　world。　〃This　month　a　certain　great

person　will　be　threatened　with　death　or　sickness。〃　This　the

news…papers　will　tell　them；　for　there　we　find　at　the　end　of　the

year；　that　no　month　passes　without　the　death　of　some　person　of

note；　and　it　would　be　hard　if　it　should　be　otherwise；　when　there

are　at　least　two　thousand　persons　of　not　in　this　kingdom；　many　of

them　old；　and　the　almanack…maker　has　the　liberty　of　chusing　the

sickliest　season　of　the　year　where　he　may　fix　his　prediction。

Again；　〃This　month　an　eminent　clergyman　will　be　preferr'd；〃　of

which　there　may　be　some　hundreds　half　of　them　with　one　foot　in

the　grave。　Then　〃such　a　planet　in　such　a　house　shews　great

machinations；　plots　and　conspiracies；　that　may　in　time　be　brought

to　light：〃　After　which；　if　we　hear　of　any　discovery；　the

astrologer　gets　the　honour；　if　not；　his　prediction　still　stands

good。　And　at　last；　〃God　preserve　King　William　from　all　his　open

and　secret　enemies；　Amen。〃　When　if　the　King　should　happen　to　have

died；　the　astrologer　plainly　foretold　it；　otherwise　it　passes　but

for　the　pious　ejaculation　of　a　loyal　subject：　Though　it　unluckily

happen'd　in　some　of　their　almanacks；　that　poor　King　William　was

pray'd　for　many　months　after　he　was　dead；　because　it　fell　out

that　he　died　about　the　beginning　of　the　year。



To　mention　no　more　of　their　impertinent　predictions：　What　have　we

to　do　with　their　advertisements　about　pills　and　drink　for　the

venereal　disease？　Or　their　mutual　quarrels　in　verse　and　prose　of

Whig　and　Tory；　wherewith　the　stars　have　little　to　do？



Having　long　observed　and　lamented　these；　and　a　hundred　other

abuses　of　this　art；　too　tedious　to　repeat；　I　resolved　to　proceed

in　a　new　way；　which　I　doubt　not　will　be　to　the　general

satisfaction　of　the　kingdom：　I　can　this　year　produce　but　a

specimen　of　what　I　design　for　the　future；　having　employ'd　most

part　of　my　time　in　adjusting　and　correcting　the　calculations　I

made　some　years　past；　because　I　would　offer　nothing　to　the　world

of　which　I　am　not　as　fully　satisfied；　as　that　I　am　now　alive。　For

these　two　last　years　I　have　not　failed　in　above　one　or　two

particulars；　and　those　of　no　very　great　moment。　I　exactly

foretold　the　miscarriage　at　Toulon；　with　all　its　particulars；　and

the　loss　of　Admiral　Shovel；　tho'　I　was　mistaken　as　to　the　day；

placing　that　accident　about　thirty…six　hours　sooner　than　it

happen'd；　but　upon　reviewing　my　schemes；　I　quickly　found　the

cause　of　that　error。　I　likewise　foretold　the　Battle　of　Almanza　to

the　very　day　and　hour；　with　the　loss　on　both　sides；　and　the

consequences　thereof。　All　which　I　shewed　to　some　friends　many

months　before　they　happened；　that　is；　I　gave　them　papers　sealed

up；　to　open　at　such　a　time；　after　which　they　were　at　liberty　to

read　them；　and　there　they　found　my　predictions　true　in　every

article；　except　one　or　two；　very　minute。



As　for　the　few　following　predictions　I　now　offer　the　world；　I

forbore　to　publish　them　till　I　had　perused　the　several　almanacks

for　the　year　we　are　now　enter'd　on。　I　find　them　in　all　the　usual

strain；　and　I　beg　the　reader　will　compare　their　manner　with　mine：

And　here　I　make　bold　to　tell　the　world；　that　I　lay　the　whole

credit　of　my　art　upon　the　truth　of　these　predictions；　and　I　will

be　content；　that　Partridge；　and　the　rest　of　his　clan；　may　hoot　me

for　a　cheat　and　impostor；　if　I　fail　in　any　singular　particular　of

moment。　I　believe；　any　man　who　reads　this　paper；　will　look　upon

me　to　be　at　least　a　person　of　as　much　honesty　and　understanding；

as　a　common　maker　of　almanacks。　I　do　not　lurk　in　the　dark；　I　am

not　wholly　unknown　in　the　world；　I　have　set　my　name　at　length；　to

be　a　mark　of　infamy　to　mankind；　if　they　shall　find　I　deceive

them。



In　one　thing　I　must　desire　to　be　forgiven；　that　I　talk　more

sparingly　of　home…affairs：　As　it　will　be　imprudence　to　discover

secrets　of　state；　so　it　would　be　dangerous　to　my　person；　but　in

smaller　matters；　and　that　are　not　of　publick　consequence；　I　shall

be　very　free；　and　the　truth　of　my　conjectures　will　as　much　appear

from　those　as　the　other。　As　for　the　most　signal　events　abroad　in

France；　Flanders；　Italy　and　Spain；　I　shall　make　no　scruple　to

predict　them　in　plain　terms：　Some　of　them　are　of　importance；　and

I　hope　I　shall　seldom　mistake　the　day　they　will　happen；

therefore；　I　think　good　to　inform　the　reader；　that　I　all　along

make　use　of　the　Old　Style　observed　in　England；　which　I　desire　he

will　compare　with　that　of　the　news…papers；　at　the　time　they

relate　the　actions　I　mention。



I　must　add　one　word　more：　I　know　it　hath　been　the　opinion　of

several　of　the　learned；　who　think　well　enough　of　the　true　art　of

astrology；　That　the　stars　do　only　incline；　and　not　force　the

actions　or　wills　of　men：　And　therefore；　however　I　may　proceed　by

right　rules；　yet　I　cannot　in　prudence　so　confidently　assure　the

events　will　follow　exactly　as　I　predict　them。



I　hope　I　have　maturely　considered　this　objection；　which　in　some

cases　is　of　no　little　weight。　For　example：　A　man　may；　by　the

influence　of　an　over…ruling　planet；　be　disposed　or　inclined　to

lust；　rage；　or　avarice；　and　yet　by　the　force　of　reason　overcome

that　bad　influence；　and　this　was　the　case　of　Socrates：　But　as　the

great　events　of　the　world　usually　depend　upon　numbers　of　men；　it

cannot　be　expected　they　should　all　unite　to　cross　their

inclinations；　from　pursuing　a　general　design；　wherein　they

unanimously　agree。　Besides　the　influence　of　the　stars　reaches　to

many　actions　and　events　which　are　not　any　way　in　the　power　of

reason；　as　sickness；　death；　and　what　we　commonly　call　accidents；

with　many　more；　needless　to　repeat。



But　now　it　is　time　to　proceed　to　my　predictions；　which　I　have

begun　to　calculate　from　the　time　that　the　Sun　enters　into　Aries。

And　this　I　take　to　be　properly　the　beginning　of　the　natural　year。

I　pursue　them　to　the　time　that　he　enters　Libra；　or　somewhat　more；

which　is　the　busy　period　of　the　year。　The　remainder　I　have　not

yet　adjusted；　upon　account　of　several　impediments　needless　here

to　mention：　Besides；　I　must　remind　the　reader　again；　that　this　is

but　a　specimen　of　what　I　design　in　succeeding　years　to　treat　more

at　large；　if　I　may　have　liberty　and　encouragement。



My　first　prediction　is　but　a　trifle；　yet　I　will　mention　it；　to

show　how　ignorant　those　sottish　pretenders　to　astrology　are　in

their　own　concerns：　It　relates　to　Partridge　the　almanack…maker；　I

have　consulted　the　stars　of　his　nativity　by　my　own　rules；　and

find　he　will　infallibly　die　upon　the　29th　of　March　next；　about

eleven　at　night；　of　a　raging　fever；　therefore　I　advise　him　to

consider　of　it；　and　settle　his　affairs　in　time。



The　month　of　April　will　be　observable　for　the　death　of　many　great

persons。　On　the　4th　will　die　the　Cardinal　de　Noailles；　Archbishop

of　Paris：　On　the　11th　the　young　Prince　of　Asturias；　son　to　the

Duke　of　Anjou：　On　the　14th　a　great　peer　of　this　realm　will　die　a