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him　a　corresponding　membership　of　the　French　Institute。







It　is　absolutely　clear　in　my　mind　that；　if　anything　is　to　be　done



toward　disarmament；　a　practical　beginning　must　be　made　by　the



Czar；　but　the　unfortunate　thing　is　that　with；　no　doubt；　fairly



good　intentions；　he　is　weak　and　ill　informed。　The　dreadful



mistake　he　is　making　in　violating　the　oath　sworn　by　his



predecessors　and　himself　to　Finland　is　the　result　of　this



weakness　and　ignorance；　and　should　he　attempt　to　diminish　his



overgrown　army　he　would；　in　all　probability；　be　overborne　by　the



military　people　about　him；　and　by　petty　difficulties　which　they



would　suggest；　or；　if　necessary；　create。　It　must　be　confessed



that　there　is　one　danger　in　any　attempted　disarmament；　and　this



is　that　the　military　clique　might；　to　prevent　it；　plunge　the



empire　into　a　war。







The　Emperor　is　surrounded　mainly　by　inferior　men。　Under　the　shade



of　autocracy　men　of　independent　strength　rarely　flourish。　Indeed；



I　find　that　the　opinion　regarding　Russian　statesmen　which　I



formed　in　Russia　is　confirmed　by　old　diplomatists；　of　the　best



judgment；　whom　I　meet　here。　One　of　them　said　to　me　the　other　day：



〃There　is　no　greater　twaddle　than　all　the　talk　about　far…seeing



purposes　and　measures　by　Russian　statesmen。　They　are　generally



weak；　influenced　by　minor；　and　especially　by　personal；



considerations；　and　inferior　to　most　men　in　similar　positions　in



the　other　great　governments　of　Europe。　The　chancellor；　Prince



Gortchakoff；　of　whom　so　much　has　been　said；　was　a　weak；　vain　man；



whom　Bismarck　found　it　generally　very　easy　to　deal　with。〃







As　to　my　own　experience；　I　think　many　of　those　whom　I　saw　were



far　from　the　best　of　their　kind　with　whom　I　have　had　to　do。　I



have　never　imagined　a　human　being　in　the　position　of　minister　of



the　interior　of　a　great　nation　so　utterly　futile　as　the　person



who　held　that　place　at　St。　Petersburg　in　my　time；　and　the　same



may　be　said　of　several　others　whom　I　met　there　in　high　places。



There　are　a　few　strong　men；　and；　unfortunately；　Pobedonostzeff　is



one　of　them。　Luckily；　De　Witte；　the　minister　of　finance；　is



another。







July　10。







The　evil　which　I　dreaded；　as　regards　the　formation　of　public



opinion　in　relation　to　the　work　of　our　conference；　is　becoming



realized。　The　London　〃Spectator；〃　just　received；　contains　a　most



disheartening　article；　〃The　Peace　Conference　a　Failure；〃　with　an



additional　article；　more　fully　developed；　to　the　same　effect。



Nothing　could　be　more　unjust；　but；　on　account　of　the



〃Spectator's〃　〃moderation；〃　it　will　greatly　influence　public



opinion；　and　doubtless　prevent；　to　some　extent；　the　calling　of



future　conferences　needed　to　develop　the　good　work　done　in　this。



Fortunately　the　correspondent　of　the　〃Times〃　gives　a　better



example；　and　shows；　in　his　excellent　letters；　what　has　been



accomplished　here。　The　〃New　York　Herald；〃　also；　is　thus　far



taking　the　right　view；　and　maintaining　it　with　some　earnestness。











July　17。







This　morning；　at　ten；　to　the　〃House　in　the　Wood〃　to　hear　Mr。　van



Karnebeek's　report　on　disarmament；　checking　invention；　etc。；



before　the　session　of　committee　No。　1。　It　was　strongly　attacked；



and　was　left　in　shreds：　the　whole　subject　is　evidently　too



immature　and　complicated　to　be　dealt　with　during　the　present



conference。







In　the　afternoon　came　up　an　especially　interesting　matter　in　the



session　of　the　arbitration　committee；　the　occasion　being　a　report



of　the　subcommittee。　Among　the　points　which　most　interested　us　as



Americans　was　a　provision　for　an　appeal　from　the　decision　of　the



arbitration　tribunal　on　the　discovery　of　new　facts。







De　Martens　of　Russia　spoke　with　great　force　against　such　right　of



appeal；　and　others　took　ground　with　him。　Holls　really



distinguished　himself　by　a　telling　speech　on　the　other



sidewhich　is　the　American　side；　that　feature　having　been



present　in　our　original　instructions；　Messrs。　Asser　and　Karnebeek



both　spoke　for　it　effectively；　and　the　final　decision　was



virtually　in　our　favor；　for　Mr。　Asser's　compromise　was　adopted；



which　really　gives　us　the　case。







The　Siamese　representatives　requested　that　the　time　during　which



an　appeal　might　be　allowed　should　be　six　instead　of　three　months；



which　we　had　named；　but　it　was　finally　made　a　matter　of



adjustment　between　the　parties。











July　18。







The　American　delegation　met　at　ten；　when　a　cable　message　from　the



State　Department　was　read　authorizing　us　to　sign　the　protocol。











July　19。







Field　day　in　the　arbitration　committee。　A　decided　sensation　was



produced　by　vigorous　speeches　by　my　Berlin　colleague；　Beldiman；



of　the　Roumanian　delegation；　and　by　Servian；　Greek；　and　other



delegates；　against　the　provision　for　commissions　d'enquete；De



Martens；　Descamps；　and　others　making　vigorous　speeches　in　behalf



of　them。　It　looked　as　if　the　Balkan　states　were　likely　to



withdraw　from　the　conference　if　the　commission　d'enquete　feature



was　insisted　upon：　they　are　evidently　afraid　that　such　〃examining



commissions〃　may　be　sent　within　their　boundaries　by　some　of　their



big　neighborsRussia；　for　exampleto　spy　out　the　land　and　start



intrigues。　The　whole　matter　was　put　over。







In　the　evening　to　Count　Munster's　dinner　at　Scheveningen；　and　had



a　very　interesting　talk　on　conference　matters　with　Sir　Julian



Pauncefote；　finding　that　in　most　things　we　shall　be　able　to　stand



together　as　the　crisis　approaches。











July　20。







For　several　days　past　I　have　been　preparing　a　possible　speech　to



be　made　in　signing　the　protocol；　etc。；　which；　if　not　used　for



that　purpose；　may　be　published；　and；　perhaps；　aid　in　keeping



public　opinion　in　the　right　line　as　regards　the　work　of　the



conference　after　it　has　closed。







In　the　afternoon　to　the　〃House　in　the　Wood；〃　the　committee　on



arbitration　meeting　again。　More　speeches　were　made　by　the



Bulgarians　and　Servians；　who　are　still　up　in　arms；　fearing　that



the　commissionn　d'enquete　means　intervention　by　the　great　states



in　their　affairs。　Speeches　to　allay　their　fears　were　made　by



Count　Nigra；　Dr。　Zorn；　Holls；　and　Leon　Bourgeois。　Zorn　spoke　in



German　with　excellent　effect；　as　did　Holls　in　English；　Nigra　was



really　impressive；　and　Bourgeois；　from　the　chair；　gave　us　a



specimen　of　first…rate　French　oratory。　He　made　a　most　earnest



appeal　to　the　delegates　of　the　Balkan　states；　showing　them　that



by　such　a　system　of　arbitration　as　is　now　proposed　the　lesser



powers　would　be　the　very　first　to　profit；　and　he　appealed　to



their　loyalty　to　humanity。　The　speech　was　greatly　and　justly



applauded。







The　Balkan　delegates　are　gradually　and　gracefully　yielding。











July　21。







In　the　morning　to　the　〃House　in　the　Wood；〃　where　a　plenary



session　of　the　conference　was　held。　It　was　a　field　day　on



explosive；　flattening　and　expanding　bullets；　etc。　Our　Captain



Crozier；　who　evidently　knows　more　about　the　subject　than　anybody



else　here；　urged　a　declaration　of　the　principle　that　balls　should



be　not　more　deadly　or　cruel　than　is　absolutely　necessary　to　put



soldiers　hors　de　combat；　but　the　committee　had　reported　a



resolution　which；　Crozier　insists；　opens　the　door　to　worse



missiles　than　those　at　present　used。　Many　and　earnest　speeches



were　made。　I　made　a　short　speech；　moving　to　refer　the　matter　back



to　the　committee；　with　instructions　to　harmonize　and　combine　the



two　ideas　in　one　articlethat　is；　the　idea　which　the　article　now



expresses；　and　Crozier's　idea　of　stating　the　general　principle　to



which　the　bullets　should　conformnamely；　that　of　not　making　a



wound　more　cruel　than　necessary；　but　the　amendment　was　lost。







July　22。







Sir　Julian　Pauncefote　called　to　discuss　with　us　the　signing　of



the　Acte　Final。　There　seems　to　be　general　doubt　as　to　what　is　the



best　manner　of　signing　the　conventions；　declarations；　etc。；　and



all　remains　in　the　air。







In　the　morning　the　American　delegation　met　and　Captain　Mahan



threw　in　a　bomb　regarding　article　27；　which　requires　that　when



any　two　parties　to　the　conference　are　drifting　into　war；　the



other　powers　should　consider　it　a　duty　（devoir）　to　remind　them　of



the　arbitration　tribunal；　etc。　He　thinks　that　this　infringes　the



American　doctrine　of　not　entangling　ourselves　in　the　affairs　of



foreign　states；　and　will　prevent　the　ratification　of　the



convention　by　the　United　States　Senate。　This　aroused　earnest



debate；　Captain　Mahan　insisting　upon　the　omission　of　the　word



〃devoir；〃　and　Dr。　Holls　defending　the　article　as　reported　by　the



subcommittee；　of　which　he　is　a　member；　and　contending　that　the



peculiar　interests　of　America　could　be　protected　by　a



reservation。　Finally；　the　delegation　voted　to　insist　upon　the



insertion　of　the　qualifying　words；　〃autant　que　les　circonstances



permettent；〃　but　this　decision　was　afterward　abandoned。











July　23。







Met　at　our　Minister　Newel's　supper　Sir　Henry　Howard；　who　told　me



that　the　present　Dutch　ministry；　with　Piersoon　at　its　head　and　De



Beaufort　as　minister　of　foreign　affairs；　is　in　a　very　bad　way；



that　its　〃subserviency　to　Italy；〃　in　opposition　to　the　demands　of



the　Vatican　for　admittance　into　the　conference；　and　its



difficulties　with　the　socialists　and　others；　arising　from　the



police　measures　taken　against　Armenian；　Finnish；　New　Turkish；　and