criminal psychology-第41部分

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d　may　be　established　as　probable。　It　then　remains　the　center　of　operation；　until　it　becomes　of　itself　a　proof　or；　as　we　have　explained；　until　so　many　high　probabilities　in　various　directions　have　been　gathered；　that；　taken　in　their　order；　they　serve　evidentially。　A　very　high　degree　of　probability　is　sufficient　in　making　complaints；　but　sentencing　requires　‘‘certainty；''　and　in　most　cases　the　struggle　between　the　prosecution　and　the　defense；　and　the　doubt　of　the　judge；　turns　upon　the　question　of　probability　as　against　proof。＇1＇


＇1＇　Of　course　we　mean　by　‘‘proof''　as　by　‘‘certainty''　only　the　highest　possible　degree　of　probability。


That　probability　is　in　this　way　and　in　a　number　of　relations；　of　great　value　to　the　criminalist　can　not　appear　doubtful。　Mittermaier　defines　its　significance　briefly：　‘‘Probability　naturally　can　never　lead　to　sentence。　It　is；　however；　important　as　a　guide　for　the　conduct　of　the　examiner；　as　authorizing　him　to　take　certain　measures；　it　shows　how　to　attach　certain　legal　processes　in　various　directions。''

Suppose　that　we　review　the　history　of　the　development　of　the　theory　of　probability。　The　first　to　have　attempted　a　sharp　distinction　between　demonstrable　and　probable　knowledge　was　Locke。　Leibnitz　was　the　first　to　recognize　the　importance　of　the　theory　　of　probability　for　inductive　logic。　He　was　succeeded　by　the　mathematician　Bernoulli　and　the　revolutionist　Condorcet。　The　theory　in　its　modern　form　was　studied　by　Laplace；　Quetelet；　Herschel；　von　Kirchmann；　J。　von　Kries；　Venn；　Cournot；　Fick；　von　Bortkiewicz；　etc。　The　concept　that　is　called　probability　varies　with　different　authorities。　Locke＇1＇　divides　all　fundamentals　into　demonstrative　and　probable。　According　to　this　classification　it　is　probable　that　‘‘all　men　are　mortal；''　and　that　‘‘the　sun　will　rise　to…morrow。''　But　to　be　consistent　with　ordinary　speech　the　fundamentals　must　be　classified　as　evidence；　certainties；　and　probabilities。　By　certainties　I　understand　such　fundamentals　as　are　supported　by　experience　and　leave　no　room　for　doubt　or　considerationeverything　else；　especially　as　it　permits　of　further　proof；　is　more　or　less　probable。


＇1＇　Locke：　Essay　on　the　Human　Understanding。


Laplace＇2＇　spoke　more　definitely‘‘Probability　depends　in　part　on　our　ignorance；　in　part　on　our　knowledge　。　。　。


＇2＇　Laplace：　Essay　Philosophique　sur　les　Probabilit